🚀 The Return of the Tech IPOs
After years of market turbulence, tech IPOs are back in the spotlight. The “IPO drought” that followed the 2021 frenzy left founders and investors on the sidelines, wary of volatile valuations, rising interest rates, and the relentless scrutiny of public markets. But 2025 has ushered in a new era: robust investor demand, stabilizing interest rates, and a wave of innovation—especially in artificial intelligence—have reignited the public markets, with tech and fintech companies leading the charge.
In this week’s deep dive, Alejandro Alcocer unpacks the forces behind the IPO revival. He traces the dramatic shift from the post-pandemic boom to the cautious optimism of today, exploring why founders paused their public ambitions, how private capital and secondary markets filled the gap, and what’s changed to bring IPOs roaring back.
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In the Know with Nido: What we are reading
💳 Tapi's Strategic Acquisition to Boost LATAM Payment Services
Argentina's tapi has acquired Arcus's Mexico operations, enhancing its payment infrastructure in Latin America. The undisclosed cash deal provides tapi access to numerous billers and cash locations, including OXXO and 7-Eleven, leveraging Arcus’s integration with Mexico’s SPEI system. With $32 million in backing and a profitable track record, tapi aims to handle over 270 million transactions worth $5.5 billion this year. (Yahoo Finance)
🤖 Nvidia Strengthens AI Arsenal with CentML Acquisition
Nvidia has acquired Toronto-based AI startup CentML, gaining its leadership, technology, and team. Founded in 2022, CentML specialized in optimizing AI model training, having raised $30.9 million in funding before announcing its closure. Following the acquisition, CentML's CEO joins Nvidia as a senior director, enhancing Nvidia's AI software capabilities. This move reflects Nvidia's ongoing commitment to AI innovation, as evidenced by a 2.3% rise in its shares. (Yahoo Finance)
💸 Sheinbaum's Plan to Refund Trump’s Remittance Tax
Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum announced a reimbursement plan for the 1% remittance tax imposed in the U.S. using the Finabien Paisano card. While over 90% of remittances are sent electronically and exempt from the tax, this initiative aims to support those who still rely on cash transactions. (El Financiero)
🚀 Robinhood's Bold Move into Tokenized Stocks
Robinhood's stock jumped approximately 13% following its announcement to enable EU users to trade over 200 tokenized U.S. stocks and ETFs on the Arbitrum blockchain, marking a significant step in merging traditional equities with cryptocurrency. (CoinDesk)
👗 Transform Your Wardrobe with Google's New AI App Doppl
Google has launched Doppl, an experimental app that utilizes AI for virtual outfit try-ons. Users can upload a full-body photo to visualize various outfits from thrift stores, friends, or social media. Doppl generates images and realistic AI videos of users in selected outfits. Currently available on iOS and Android in the U.S., the app's future expansion remains uncertain as Google refines its features. (Techcrunch)
🔍 Apple Eyes AI Giants to Revitalize Siri
Apple is exploring the integration of Anthropic’s Claude and OpenAI’s GPT models into Siri, moving testing to its own cloud infrastructure. This shift comes as internal development of a proprietary model has faced delays, postponing Siri's AI overhaul to 2026 or later. The collaboration aims to enhance Apple's conversational AI capabilities and close the gap with competitors. (Techcrunch)
🖥️ Manage Your AI Coding Agents with Cursor's New Web App
Anysphere's Cursor has unveiled a web app for managing AI coding agents directly from browsers, moving beyond its IDE roots. New features include autonomous background agents and Slack integration for task management. With over $500 million in recurring revenue and usage by more than half of Fortune 500 companies, the app is set to revolutionize workflows as AI coding agents aim to take on 20% of engineers' tasks by 2026. (Techcrunch)
⚡ Newtopia VC Powers Up Volt for WhatsApp Users
Newtopia VC has invested in Volt, a new desktop app designed by Matías Carpintini and Miguel Morkin, creators of Sirena and Calendico. Volt enhances WhatsApp with fast shortcuts, AI voice-note summaries, message scheduling, and CRM integrations, aiming to save power users hours each week and establish a "Superhuman-for-WhatsApp" category for over 200 million professionals. (Newtopia VC)
🔥 Campfire: The AI Startup Disrupting ERP SolutionsAI-driven accounting startup
Campfire has successfully raised $35 million in Series A funding led by Accel, alongside other investors. Founded in 2023 by John Glasgow, Campfire is attracting startups away from NetSuite, thanks to its innovative use of LLMs for automating financial tasks. With 100 customers and rapid growth, the company is tapping into the $56 billion ERP market. (Techcrunch)
🛡 Treasury Clarifies Intervention in CIBanco, Intercam, and Vector
Edgar Amador, Secretary of Treasury, provided details on the temporary intervention of CIBanco, Intercam, and Vector Casa de Bolsa due to U.S. sanctions for alleged money laundering. He emphasized that the Mexican banking system, which accounts for less than 1% of total deposits, continues to operate normally without interruptions. (El Universal)
📺 The Transformation of TV in the Age of Social Media
As traditional TV struggles with declining viewership and competition from mobile devices, platforms like YouTube, TikTok, and Instagram are adapting by launching TV apps. This trend blurs the lines between different screens, as viewers increasingly consume short-form content on larger displays. YouTube leads in TV viewership, while Meta and TikTok aim to capture audience attention and advertising revenue through their evolving content strategies. (New York Magazine)
🌍 Lotux Invests in Latin America's Purpose-Driven Tech Startups
Lotux has launched its second venture fund, aiming to invest in mission-driven, pre-seed startups across Latin America, with checks ranging from $50K to $100K. The firm, led by Managing Partner Mat Gantar, believes in supporting founders dedicated to societal improvement. With five investments so far, including PROSPERiA and Anyone AI, Lotux plans to invest in 15 more startups over the next 18 months. (Latamlist)
🏆 Afore XXI Banorte Named Mexico's Best Pension Fund 2025
Afore XXI Banorte has been awarded the title of Best Pension Fund in Mexico for 2025 by World Finance. This recognition highlights its competitive risk-adjusted returns and commitment to environmental, social, and governance (ESG) criteria. With over 1.3 trillion pesos in assets under management, it stands out as a leader in the Mexican pension system and a strategic reference in Latin America. (El Financiero)
🔍 Mexico Seizes Control of Banks Amid U.S. Sanctions
Mexico's banking regulator has taken control of CIBanco, Intercam Banco, and Vector Casa de Bolsa following U.S. sanctions for alleged money laundering linked to organized crime and fentanyl trafficking. This intervention aims to protect depositors and creditors, as these banks, holding $22 billion in assets, face isolation from the U.S. financial system. President Claudia Sheinbaum defends Mexico's sovereignty against the allegations. (Reuters)
🌎 Revolut Sets Its Sights on Argentina's Fintech Market
Revolut is making a significant move into Argentina by acquiring Cetelem Argentina from BNP Paribas, pending regulatory approval. The UK fintech aims to provide fee-free international transfers, multi-currency accounts, and dollar access to help Argentinians cope with economic challenges. This expansion positions Revolut against established players like Mercado Pago and Ualá, as it seeks to capitalize on the growing demand for digital financial services in Latin America. (The Paypers)
In-depth with Nido: What we are thinking
The introduction of groundbreaking technologies has historically granted lucrative rewards to entrepreneurs who have used these innovations in their own novel way. The digital revolution brought about by the dot-com boom generated about 1,000 internet-centric IPOs (~36% of total IPOs) between 1995-2000, whose business models ranged from social media platforms to music streaming software (more on University of Florida & WilmerHale). The AI-boom presents itself as gen Z’s opportunity at producing yet another round of young billionaires who will flip these emerging technologies into distinct and high profitable businesses, some of which will grow so large that public capital injection is the only viable option to maintain their growth.
While IPOs have seen a drought the last 3 years due to a mix of macroeconomic (and possibly, sociological) factors, recent data shows a much more optimistic future for the companies that will define the next stage of technological advancements. In this article, we explore the reasons for the dramatic drop in IPOs from the 2021 post-covid boom, and the very recent optimism that entrepreneurs have for current market conditions, which could ultimately attract a surge in public offerings.
Why Founders Hesitate
The notoriously low IPO output of 2022 following the outstandingly high activity of 2021 was driven by a drop in investor confidence in global markets, attributed to factors like rising interest rates and sinking valuations. Between 2021 and 2022, there was a difference of 326 IPOs (397 vs. 71), $134.7 billions raised ($142.4 billion vs. $7.7 billion), and a $156 million loss in median deal size by Q4 of 2022 (more on KPMG). However, it should be noted that the historically high numbers measured in 2021 were subject to post-covid hype, as seen with Instacart’s 2021 $39 billion valuation vs. its fully diluted valuation of $9.9 billion during their IPO (more on Fortune).
The red flags for investors were quite evident, since the slow economic growth resulting in the tightening monetary conditions of central banks offered obvious disincentivizers, leading to a global capital destruction of $9 trillion (more on Schroeders). Even the few big deals that did occur in 2022 were safe, almost infallible, IPOs from value markets such as Intel’s MobilEye subsidiary, which raised $861 million for Intel and was up 67% by Q4 of 2022 (CNN Business).
As for tech founders, the play was to stay private, but the question that remained was “for how long?”. The signs for the dwindling performance of growth markets were clear, as demonstrated by investor uncertainty resulting in a 47% down by Q4 of 2022 (including MobilEye, so the real value without this outlier is even lower).
The market was evidently hostile towards the tech sector, dissuading founders from their original IPO plans as seen with Reddit, who filed confidentiality in December 2021 but delayed until the business climate for tech recovered (more on Crunchbase). Investors were optimistic for Reddit’s growth, given its exceptional gross margins when compared to other social media platforms (~85% as documented in their 2022 and 2023 figures vs. Pinterest’s 66% at time of filing), indicating Reddit’s suitable candidacy for an IPO (more on SEC). However, despite the optimism for their growth and vast head room for monetization, the market conditions were ultimately too much of a deterrent, consequently shifting the criteria of Reddit’s team to seek more closeness to profitability before going public (more on Crunchbase). In this highly skeptical market, speculation and optimism became too weak of an argument to justify pricing, and the strategy became to focus on solid earnings.
This same strategy spread throughout the rest of the tech unicorns, including Databricks, Stripe, and Chime. An abundance of eager venture capitalists and alternative private sources of funding was enough to keep these companies afloat, allowing them to focus on their growth goals as opposed to being pressured to IPO, despite resulting slashes in valuation. Stripe, for example, raised $6.5 billion in March of 2023, halving its valuation to $50 billion from its peak of $95 billion in 2021 (more on CNBC). Databricks, like Reddit, also delayed its IPO plans due to market conditions and has continued to raise private funding rounds, its latest being a Series J of $10 billion and another $5.25 billion in debt financing, placing it at a total valuation of $62 billion (more on TechCrunch).
In the following years, the IPO market was in a phase of recovery, with ~107 IPOs completed in 2023 (up 50% from 2022) raising a total of $19.4 billion (note: this is using KPMGs criteria for what classifies as a valid IPO). Notable tech IPOs were Arm Holdings (a semiconductor design firm) which was the flagship company raising $4.8 billion, and Instacart, raising around $660 million (more on Baird). Although Instacart’s stock performance was not as successful as expected, rising 40% on the first day but dropping back down to just above its IPO price the following day, it demonstrated that tech IPOs would soon return but investors were still hesitant on growth tech companies. During 2024, tech IPOs continued to be in a state of “cautious optimism”, with overall IPO volumes up 38% and values up more than 50%, led by companies like ServiceTitan, who raised $625 million (more on KPMG).
Although macroeconomic factors played a huge role in the cautious behavior of tech companies, there are other factors aside from these conditions that made founders hesitant to file an S-1. A major one is the massive discrepancy between private and public valuations, especially during the 2020 - 2021 period. With the exception of Instacart, most founders chose to wait and re-calibrate their valuations as opposed to entering an IPO with unrealistic expectations. Although many of these companies took massive down rounds, as seen with Stripe, Instacart, and Chime, whose valuation dropped to ~$11 billion at its recent IPO as opposed to its 2021 valuation of $25 billion, these slashed valuations were crucial to provide a more realistic landscape. Eventually, these cuts had beneficial long term effects, as seen with Chime’s rise of 59% on its first day of trading in 2025 (more on Reuters).
On top of financial factors, there is also the often overlooked component of the intense public scrutiny that these companies must endure, which is unattractive to lean tech teams. Although traditionally companies had an unwavering goal of growing as much as possible, there has been a shift with the younger generation on preserving a balanced, low stress work environment that does not place too much strain on employees and leading staff. The demands of quarterly earnings calls and daily share-price volatility can disrupt a company’s culture, replacing the comradery of a small, transparent team with the impersonal feel of a sprawling public corporation.
All of the aforementioned factors have played an important role in shifting the perspective of IPOs, but the future for the IPO market is recently starting to seem more optimistic.
The Recovery
The emergence of alternative exits and private capital injection have reduced the popularity of going public amongst tech founders. The scale of venture capital has grown to the point that massive checks are not out of the ordinary, giving founders a way of scaling their companies without going through the logistical hassle of an IPO. On top of this, some companies who would be ideal candidates for an IPO, as seen with Scale AI, get acquired by the tech giants that have no problem writing multi-billion dollar checks to access new technologies.
However, recent changes in the VC landscape could cause shifts in the IPO landscape. In recent years, large venture capital firms including Sequoia, Andressen Horowitz, General Catalyst, and most recently Lightspeed, have all filed to become Registered Investment Advisors (RIAs), allowing them to trade secondary markets (more on Financial Times). While a primary reason for this shift is related to investments in cryptocurrencies, a key motive is to preserve equity in unicorns that eventually enter the public markets. Venture capital firms are reaching a point of maturity, and LPs are becoming more demanding on their expected returns. The classical VC model of shot-gunning investments in hopes of a “home run” could prove to be unsustainable for the increasing demands of LPs, so a way to address this need is preserving a sizable stake in portfolio companies even once they become publicly traded. As a result, this new model of venture capital could increase the interest in partners, who now hold board positions, to place more pressure on their portfolio companies to IPO, given that they will still continue to experience gains even once they enter the public markets.
Another reason that IPOs might grow in popularity is that founders are no longer seeking unrealistic, best case scenario valuations as a strategy for better performance in the public markets, leaving more upside for new investors and reducing the probability of a “flunked” IPO. This is evidenced by Chime’s success on its first day in the markets despite a slash in valuation, indicating that investors are interested in buying IPOs from growth markets, but they must be fairly priced. No longer are companies chasing headlines of extremely overblown, multi deci-billion dollar valuations, but rather remain cautious and conservative in hopes of steady growth in these markets.
Crucially, the technology and software markets are extremely popular currently due to the many innovations developed in artificial intelligence. AI-software companies and AI chip companies are drawing greater attention from IPO investors, and gaining immense support from government investments through the Stargate Project, which will increase the size of the candidate pool for technology IPOs. This also applies to non-AI tech firms, particularly fintechs, because Chime’s successful IPO has signaled improving public sentiment toward growth companies, giving other fintech and technology businesses the green light to prepare for their own exits. With Figma’s fresh announcement of their filing of a registration statement on form S-1, and many other companies (Klarna, Stripe, Databricks) with the intention of going public, we will likely soon experience a huge rise in the popularity of tech IPOs (more on Figma).
Finally, and perhaps most importantly, the macroeconomic conditions are no longer a deterrent for these companies to keep on delaying their IPOs. As mentioned above, there are many factors that can cause these delays (calibrating unrealistic valuations, meeting profit milestones), but the most popular reason for the IPO drought experienced in 2022 and 2023 was related to the instability of market conditions. Although caution is still prevalent, the most recent market indicators show a betterment of conditions for investment in future-focused companies. Headline CPI inflation is at 2.4% (compared to 6.4% in 2022), Fed fund rates are still not ideal but experiencing cuts since 2023, and the Renaissance ETF is up 20% in the last 3 months (more on Bureau of Labor Statistics and Bloomberg). ETF inflows are also up astronomically, since the first half of 2025 has seen $562 billion in inflows, indicating that there is a lot of money in equity funds to be invested into IPO markets (more on Yahoo Finance).
The stars are aligning for tech companies to make their move into public markets. While 2025 will most likely not experience the record levels seen in 2021, and caution is still high, tech IPOs are thawing, and we are likely to see their resurgence in the next couple of years.
Written by Alejandro Alcocer.
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